A decade after the UK entered into a hurried referendum that divided the nation and unleashed disorder, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and voters drifted into Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two leading writers from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can come out of the blue and can build support very quickly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
New Title Intends to Provoke Discussion
The pair have analysed the political, financial and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the matter with a roadshow of public talks that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everybody, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose results have remained undefined because then you end up with an extraordinarily polarised community where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the people who have won don't know exactly what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is imminent, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and unionists minimise the possibility, making it uncertain when or if there could be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has masked the shortage of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to realise it is mostly absent. A great deal has occurred in scholarly circles but scarcely any politicians or campaigners are willing to participate even with the essentials. As an example, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, none of the commentators endorses unity or the status quo. They writes two essays that seek objectivity in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, assembling economic and social data, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Arguments range over flags and symbols, levies, medical care, pensions, public liabilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The objective is to inform and stimulate dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there hasn't quite been a debate," stated the writer. "Discussion suggests an acceptance of the concept that there might be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they support unity but reject increased taxation or introducing a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government should determine what the proposal from nationalist groups is aside from just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
McBride considers a national vote in his generation is possible and that it could happen abruptly. "You could have just a reckless or a ill-advised or a feckless government minister who declares: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have reasonable, legitimate arguments, he stated. "Somebody will prevail here and somebody will ultimately lose but each side has got valuable insights to learn from the opposing positions."
Call for Broader Discussion
Westminster needed to engage with the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This involves your state. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish matter."
